Breaking down the Packers 3rd Down Plays vs the 49ers (Divisional Round Playoffs)
Does the loss fall squarely on 12's Shoulders?
I have heard a lot of people talk about how the Packer’s loss in the Divisional round game falls squarely on Rodgers’ shoulders. I set out to take a deeper look and see if this is the case. Seeing as 3rd down is the money down in football, I looked at each 3rd down call in the game. I don’t pretend to know what players were coached to do on each play, or the in depth knowledge of an NFL playbook. Here is my analysis of how Rodgers played on 3rd down vs the 49ers.
Play by Play- Link to CBS play by play for reference of drives.
The Packers did not face a 3rd down in the first drive (touchdown) or second drive (Lewis fumble.) We pick it up with the Packers third drive of the game.
3rd Series
2nd down- 2nd and 6- Rodgers maybe had Lazard on a dig route– would have been tight window but we’ve seen him make the throw before- instead checks down to Daffney who drops it- wouldn’t have been a gain even if completed- leading to 3rd and 6
3rd and 6- 49ers Give a Sim Pressure look but bail out of it. From a trips set Rodgers looks right where Lazard and Cobb end up within 4 yards of each other on their routes- obviously someone ran the wrong route. Pressure then breaks down the pocket- Rodgers scrambles and throws in direction of Daffney incomplete bringing up a 4th down punt.
4th Series
After a 2nd down run got it to manageable 3rd and 4, Lazard false starts on 3rd down to push it back to 3rd and 9. 49ers only rush four, but Turner and Runyan don’t handle a twist well leading to a sack. Rodgers was about to check it down to Deguara which looks like he would have picked up a first down. Coverage was good on all other routes, forcing the checkdown.
5th Series
3rd and 5. Rodgers finds Adams out of a trips formation on an out route– Looked like the passing concept was a common “Stick” concept where you have an outside fade followed by a 5 yard out and a 5 yard Stick option route. Adams gains 8, picks up the first down and moves the sticks. 49ers again had a Sim pressure look but bailed out to only rush 4. Rodgers got rid of the ball quickly.
3rd and 11- After a -1 yard gain on first down and a 0 yard sack on 2nd down, the Packers faced a 3rd and 11. The Packers ran a 3 verticals concept but Adams and Cobb’s routes ended up in the same general area. Unsure of who was wrong, but it looked like if Adams route doesn’t take him deep Cobb would have been wide open, but Adams route carried his defender to also take away Cobb’s route. Packers struggled with protection with Patrick struggling this time. Rodgers dumped it off to Jones for a 9 yard gain, bringing up a 4th down punt after they failed to draw the 49ers offsides on 4th down.
6th Series
3rd and 4- Rodgers has a crossing route open in middle of field but was flushed from pocket due to 4 man rush before he could throw it on rhythm. 49ers bust coverage on Aaron Jones up right sideline and he gains 75 yards setting up field goal attempt before end of half.
7th Series
3rd and 10- After a drop by Deguara on 2nd down that would have been a first down the Packers are left with 3rd and 10. On 3rd down the 49ers show Sim pressure- Bail out into a zone look, but bring a corner blitz. Packers don’t handle the pressure well. Rodgers is forced to step up in pocket. Maybe could have had Adams on a dig route for a first down, but checks it down to Jones for 6 which brings up a 4th down punt.
8th Series
3rd and 1- Packers move the ball well on the ground- Get it to 3rd and one which Aaron Jones barely converts but they move the sticks.
3rd and 1- The 5th of 5 straight runs gets the Packers another first down.
3rd and 4- The Packers are in the red zone now. They go with an empty formation with Jones and Lazard to the bottom of the screen. Jones runs a fade, Lazard runs a quick 5 yard out which Rodgers hits to move the sticks and bring the ball inside the 10 yard line. The 49ers were playing 2 read coverage which allowed the corner to quickly close on Lazard and prevent any yards after catch.
3rd and Goal from the 8- Rodgers picked up 2 yards on 2nd down on a shoot route to Jones out of the backfield. It appeared if he worked the other side of the field he had an opportunity to maybe gain 5-6 yards, most likely not a touchdown though. On 3rd down and goal from the 8 the Packers go Empty formation. The 49ers play what appears to be a 2 read zone concept, only rush four. They cover the play very well, and apply pressure pretty quickly with both Dennis Kelly and Lucas Patrick struggling on the play. No one was open and it would have taken a scramble drill for anything to materialize, but Rodgers was sacked before he could leave the pocket.
9th Series
3rd and 8- After a 2nd and 8 call where Rodgers had a window to throw a go route to Adams but under threw it, the Packers are facing a 3rd and 8. On 3rd and 8 the 49ers show Sim pressure- but bring 6 for the first time on 3rd down this game. Lucas Patrick leaves the man he is initially blocking for another rusher allowing Rodgers to be sacked. If Patrick stays on that man it appears Rodgers would have the time needed to slide left, and dump off a check down to Deguara for most likely a first down. The next play the punt is blocked.
10th Series
3rd and 11- On second down Rodgers forces an out route to a covered Cobb while Deguara is wide open for a check down that gains at least half of the yards needed for a first down, potentially more. On third down, probably the most important one of the game, Rodgers has what is his worst decision of the night. The 49ers rush 3 initially with 2 more coming late, but the Packers pick it all up cleanly and Rodgers has one of his best pockets of the night. He decides to throw a go route to a double covered Adams while Lazard is breaking open in the middle of the field– a throw that Rodgers has made hundreds of times over the years, for what would have been a first down, and had the potential to even result in field goal range after figuring in yards after the catch.
Recap:
This wasn’t Rodgers best game in the playoffs, everyone would agree. The protection made it difficult, especially when the 49ers were able to consistently get home with 4 rushers. Oftentimes their pressure even prevented simple check downs from occurring. Unfortunately in some key moments Rodgers missed on throws that we have seen him make before. I do not think the play calling was conservative as some have said- in fact they probably should have run the ball more in the 4th quarter. The quick passing game didn’t disappear– Rodgers simply didn’t hit on some of it. The design of plays in the red zone was poor– the 49ers played coverage and the Packers had no answer for that, that lies on the coaching staff. I have heard people say they should have thrown more crossing routes– but with the pressure they were getting with 4 rushers, and the 49ers playing primarily zone coverage- this wouldn’t have been an answer either. The Packers definitely squandered an opportunity, and while Rodgers missed a few throws and had one really bad decision, the fault should be evenly spread among the coaching staff, the offensive line struggles, and Rodgers.